To Be Two Bee: 5月 2008

2008年5月25日星期日

[+/-] : [論]系統商的生存之道

張貼者： To Be Two Bee 於凌晨12:27 2 意見

距離上次評論自己所屬的產業, 又過了半年. 在A公司準備分家時, 上次那種動搖國本的言論, 實在過於尖銳, 但是這半年內P公司所發生的事情, 紛紛在上次評論的預言中, 一一浮現, 一則以喜一則以憂, 喜的是亂猜也可以猜中, 憂的是難道連我都可以看的出來, 在上位者仍視而不見.

在系統商服務邁入第八年, 從大家所謂的一線廠到三線廠, 從股價200元做到20元, 從電子五哥到保五總隊, 從聽命於OEM外商到出來喊價, 明眼人都看的出來系統商正面臨是不是能夠轉型, 是不是能夠生存, 是不是能夠保五, 是不是員工每年都可以吃到尾牙.

核心技術在哪裡?

這年頭走在路上, 穿格子襯衫的, 你問他是不是RD, 答案80%是Yes. 滿地都是研發工程師, 以研發的角度來看, 試問系統商的核心技術在哪裡. 系統商的RD可能會說 PC架構, 南北橋非常熟, 試問你熟的過做南北橋晶片的研發工程師嗎? 他做南北橋也要做公板, 難道就不熟 PC架構. BIOS RD可能會說x86 BIOS, 試問熟的過Phoenix, AMI嗎? 他們手上是一堆Chip 公司給的公板, 當然還有那些已經包好的核心技術binary code. 寫上層軟體的RD可能會說熟悉Windows 的DirectX, 試問你有比MS的人熟悉嗎, 哪一個function不是包好的API, 會調用API不是等於了解他的技術, 充其量是一個長相不錯的operator.

這樣想一想, 系統商的RD然到都是抄抄公板線路, 算算01填填値, 看看MSDN, 最後拿起電話打給chip公司的FAE, 當然並不是所有的RD都是如此, 但確實有一些人是如此想的. 而且當系統商的上游公司想把事情做的更好的時候, 那下游的人會更趨近我所描述的事實罷了. 如果是這樣, 試問HTC為何値得股價800元, 所有生產chip的公司都可以自己聯盟組一家系統公司, 何來系統商?

從系統商的歷史角度來看就可以清楚的定位系統商, 想想所有成功的系統商都是如何當股王的, 答案直接告訴你, 只有貼近使用者的系統商才有明天. 當年ASUS是如何一飛沖天, 是一塊可靠度極佳的MB, HTC是如何在次貸下仍舊高高在上, 是他足以媲美iPhone的介面及蹲了很多年的軟硬體整合, 讓高階使用者用了有滿足感. 所以上游公司把spec化成晶片, 把硬體操控化成API, 但都不足以成為一個可以在市面上販售的產品, 系統商的定位就在於如何把這些function提供給使用者, 把function 商品化, 提供使用者一個很好的使用者介面, 甚至必須充當教育使用者的角色. 所以我們可以回頭想想, 系統商的核心技術在哪裡? RD可能會說, 這哪叫核心技術, 試問你會懷疑Apple沒有核心技術嗎? 問問台灣的品牌公司真的有care使用者的感受嗎?

如果站在RD的角度來看, 就不再是把所有的晶片兜在一起就好了, 甚至直接拿上游的total solutions, 我們應該要想使用者希望甚麼樣的產品, 怎樣去兜出一個使用者可以方便使用的產品. 就拿Bluetooth這個規格來說好了, 以產品市場的時間性來說, 他早就要大紅大紫了, 可是至今仍舊是曲高合寡, 為甚麼? 你能說他規格不好嗎? 在低速的傳輸上, USB根本不是對手, 原因就在USB插了就可以用, BT就還要配對半天, 低階使用者根本無心跟你做配對, 更遑論要找到要使用的BT軟體究竟在哪裡?

代工這條路?

個人覺得, 如果主事者不夠聰明, 實在不適合作代工, 事實證明主事者不夠聰明. 電子代工這一行, 試問全世界最早做和做的最多的國家是哪一個國家, 台灣. 沒錯, 但是搞到今天2008年, 原物料上漲, 眼看已經快無利可圖了, 老闆才出來喊今年代工的價碼要重新談, 你也忍太久了吧, 台灣有多少廉價RD, 你知道嗎?

代工這條路, 我們來參考看看老外怎樣去訂一個Spec, 所謂訂Spec就是找來一堆龍頭來分食這個市場, HD聯盟和藍光聯盟就是一個例子了, 團結這兩個字就是這樣寫的. 所以我們要一個代工聯盟, 大家把錢和規則給訂了, 大廠吃大單, 小廠吃小單, 大家有利可圖. 可是現在的情形是, 大哥賠錢做, 砍二哥, 二哥砍三弟, 二哥三弟相繼倒地, 後來大哥發現賠錢做也不能天天做. 代工真的是暴露我們民族性的大弱點.

這一期的商周有一個有趣的探討, 題目提到是否台灣還有必要保留電子製造業, 當然討論的對象是現今產和官的代表, 這個題目很有趣, 現在電子五哥中, 不知道哪一哥, 目前製造還留在台灣的, 台灣目前的環境根本不可能留住任何的電子製造業. 代工廠要的是規模, 把便宜的人力最好也算進固定成本裡, 然後把量衝大, 只要量大到足以把固定成本沖掉, 工廠就可以繼續運轉, 台灣已經很難再回到製造業的環境中.

所以只剩ODM, 我們應該探討的是台灣要如何進行ODM. 其實台灣還是可以做ODM, 拿到客戶的單和spec, 然後我們進行技術性的研發, 這其實也是一條路, 以上所言為烏托幫的論述. 現在的情形是連ODM也是不要命的搶單, 我們可以犧牲價格, 我們可以犧牲工時, 反正都可以犧牲, 問題是design不是製造, 不是搶了就能做, 所以專業的代工廠制度就應該設定, 系統商的design分工本來就很細, 既然各有所長不可能通吃, 何不聯盟, 吃下我們可以做的好的, 釋出我們沒能力作的, 然後大家拆帳, 大家都有利可圖.

很多人都說, 五年級的人辛苦, 但是他們也得到他們該有的代價, 七年級的人很清楚的看清楚這條路, 但六年級的跟著五年級的辛苦, 卻因為時代某些因素的轉變, 白白的送了青春沒有回報. 當然這些事情冰凍三尺非一日之寒, 從政策面到教育制度, 掌舵的人須負所有的責任. 而我們手上可以做的就是影響我們身邊的RD, 做更有價值的事情.

2008年5月13日星期二

[+/-] : [王建民系列報導] 洋基球場 (7)

張貼者： To Be Two Bee 於晚上10:17 0 意見

2008年5月11日星期日

[+/-] : [食記] 水月齋

張貼者： To Be Two Bee 於晚上9:52 2 意見

2008年5月9日星期五

[+/-] : [洋基]出場音樂

張貼者： To Be Two Bee 於下午3:48 0 意見

2008年5月8日星期四

[+/-] : Silverlight vs. Flash - An Analysis Report

張貼者： To Be Two Bee 於晚上8:00 2 意見

http://silverlight.net/forums/t/3015.aspx

Silverlight vs. Flash – An Analysis Report

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Silverlight	Flash
Silverlight Limitations:
Silverlight is missing Linux support, so people using Linux machine cannot run it on their machines and will have to stick to Windows and MAC OS.(獨占市場的手段之一)	This limitation doesn't exist with Flash.
Silverlight will (naturally) be using the WMV and Silverlight will add to the use of the WMV file format. Using the WMV video format essentially makes Silverlight useless for the vast majority of video websites such as YouTube. It cannot play .avi and .mov file.(果然只支援自己的WMV)	Flash Video turned Flash into a mechanism for delivering media with far more potential than any other solution that is .flv, no doubt Flash has also limitation to play other video file. For that Flash required codex for that player installed on Client machine.
Silverlight has no support for binding to models, binding to data, or even connecting to network resources to obtain data.	Even flash is also lacking this area. Flash can read data source in terms of XML or text from some URL and can use it. Same thing silverlight also can read.
Silverlight doesn't even have support for things that should be considered a stock part of any library such as buttons, checkboxes, list boxes, list views, grids, etc. Probably in future release may Microsoft support it.(新的Sliverlight這些元件都有了)	Flash has rich set of control library.
Once the accessibility features are provided with Silverlight versions, any existing test tools that support driving UI through Accessibility will be fully enabled to automate Silverlight applications	Flash test tools are already in place.
Silverlight 1.0 does not support GIF-file format. Even it doesn't support BMP and other file format. It supports only JPG and PNG file format.	Support all image formats.
Can't do sound processing.	With some media file sound processing can possible.
Socket programming is not possible.	Flash allows creating XML Socket object.
Per pixel bitmap editing, bitmap filters (convolution, color matrix, etc), bitmap effects (drop shadow, blur, glow) cannot be done.	Can do that.(Flash的強項)
Webcam and Microphone support it not there.	Flash supports it.
Built in file upload/download support is not available.	Inbuilt Upload/download support is there.
The performance of Silverlight and Flash will be nearly the same. While Silverlight is using XAML as description language in a non-compressed format size of Silverlight component is large.In practical implementation of similar component in Flash and Silverlight it has found that size of Silverlight component is approximately 10-20 times larger than Flash component.(檔案過大, 這一點正中MS的要害)	Size of flash component is smaller.
To deploy Silverlight to client browser more than one components ship. (1) XAML files (2) .dll if using C# (3) Silverlight.js (4) Custom JavaScript file. Images/videos/sounds also required deploy separately.(微軟的強項, 太簡單就不是MS)	Flash ships in single component that is .swf. Images/video/sounds also incorporated in single .swf package.
It has found in practical implementation of image animation, at some extent flickering occurs on image.	To avoid this type of flickering in flash, refresh layout or cache bitmap functionalities are available.
It has found in practical implementation of video play, audio may start playing before showing movie on screen. It has also found video can still continue to play after redirecting to other page. It may be it is bug of current beta release.	Flash doesn't face these types of issues.
Right now not any support to play Silverlight object as Windows application.(看起來是定位在Web-based App)	Flash can be played as Windows application also by downloading player for it. Flash can be also packaged as .exe which can be deploying standalone.
Silverlight is new in market and required time to get acceptance in market.	Flash is exist from many years and have strong acceptance in market.
Silverlight Feature comparison with Flash Features:
Animation - Silverlight supports the WPF animation model, which is not only time based instead of frame based, but lets you define the start and end conditions and it will figure out how to get there for you. No need to deal with matrixes like in flash. Also no need to calculate positions on various frames. It just works.(很神奇)	The animation model is frame based.
Silverlight uses XAML. XAML is text based and can be output using a simple XML object.	Flash stores its shapes using binary shape records. In order to write shape definitions, you will need to either license a 3^rd party Flash file format SDK, or build your own. It isn't too difficult, but it does require a bit of a learning curve.
The debugging with Silverlight is simpler than with flash.	The debugging with flash is harder than Silverlight.
Silverlight lets you embed true type font information directly into your projects, and download that information with the downloader object.	Dealing with fonts is fairly complex with flash.
Rich set of development languages are available for Silverlight. Developer can use JavaScript as well as managed code VB.Net, C# for Silverlight development.(沒提到 C++)	Only Action Script can be used as programming tool in Flash.
XAML is declarative while ActionScript is imperative. Using imperative languages to build UIs goes back to the early days of DOS and Windows (話是沒錯, 但是目前還是多語言是imperative languages), when developers had to manage all of the API nuances when interacting with graphical panes.	ActionScript is an imperative language, which brings itself the pitfalls of imperative languages when compared with declarative languages.
Web Services support for Silverlight Streaming(這一個就無可話說的一個'強'字):The services provided by Microsoft, called Silverlight Streaming, it allows users and developers to host their Silverlight content and apps with Microsoft, taking advantage of their extensive global network of datacenters and their content delivery network. Best of all, this service is free, and while currently it is only in alpha it allows users to upload up to 4GB of content, and to stream up to 1 million minutes of online video delivery at 700kbps, around DVD quality. Starting right now, you can build a total video content site using Silverlight at no cost. The future for this service looks good as they will incorporate Silverlight Streaming with the MSN Video ad network to allow you to easily monetize your video streams and participate in a revenue sharing opportunity with Microsoft while removing your distribution costs. There will also be a premium level of content delivery where you will be able to pay for higher levels of usage - the cost for this service is as yet unknown but expect it to be very low.	There is not any such service provided by Flash to host the content and application with them. Because of the absence of any such service, building a video site based on Flash is not as cost effective as building a video content site using Silverlight. Moreover, because of the Silverlight Streaming service, the existing Video Content sites might be moving to Silverlight site.
Additional Support for mobile devices with desktop and desktop browsers(手持裝置也支援, iPhone有敵人了):Silverlight is supported by Windows mobile device as part of a new service that the NBL have built. Silverlight applications and media streaming can be run on a mobile phone - so Silverlight even at this stage is about more than just the desktop browser and desktop market. Silverlight may be seen soon on the Symbian OS too.	Flash is not spread as across the vast majority of both desktops and mobiles platforms, as compared to Silverlight. Flash requires Flash Lite preinstalled on mobile devices.
Silverlight does not require video codec to run industry standard videos like .WMV	Flash requires video codec to run .WMV videos.
Silverlight supports scalable video formats from HD to mobile.(新的MediaCenter應該會從這裡開發吧)	Flash does not support scalable video formats from HD to mobile
Silverlight supports Hardware-assisted editing and encoding solutions.	Flash does not support Hardware-assisted editing and encoding solutions.
Silverlight has XAML based presentation layer for SEO.	Flash does not have XAML based presentation layer for SEO.
Silverlight provides End-to-end server and application platform.	Flash does not provide End-to-end server and application platform.
Media server licensing is cheaper than flash.	Media server licensing is costlier than Silverlight.
Silverlight supports Scalable full screen video.	Flash does not support Scalable full screen video.